大葱价格猛涨，很多，还在追求车厘子自由的人，回头发现曾经稳稳的大葱自由没了。这是农业部价格信息系统的大葱价格走势。
去年这时候大葱价格是两块八，现在是九块五，一年的时间涨了百分之三百三十九。除了大葱之外，最近猪肉、鸡蛋、辣椒的价格。
都涨了不少，这么多的食品一起涨价，很有点通货膨胀的架势。我们看一下最新的c p i 数据，十二月份c p i 同比涨幅百分之零点二。
二零二零年全年物价涨幅百分之二点五。从数据上看，物价挺稳定的，通胀并没有来。大葱涨价不是因为通胀导致的物价普涨。
而是另有原因。首先是去年的大葱减产严重。由于二零一九年的葱价太低，一度跌到过几毛钱一斤。所以二零二零年，很多农民都不在种大葱。
全国大葱种植面积减少了大约百分之三十，再加上去年山东、云南等大葱主产区都经历了强降雨天气，大葱耐旱，不耐涝。
葱苗死了很多，种植面积缩水，再加上受灾大葱，价格自然就会升高。葱价上涨的第二个原因就是资本的投机炒作。
去年，玉米迎来了十年未有的大牛市，一年时间也不过才涨了百分之四十，而葱价只用了半年就涨了百分之三百。如果没有游资的推波助澜，葱价不会波动的这么剧烈。
从去年六月份从价上扬时起，很多游资涌入市场，从价几乎每过三个月就翻一番，赚到暴利的经销商或者中间商大有人在。
为什么葱姜蒜价格动不动就大涨，为什么蒜你狠，姜立军向前冲，总是上热搜。价格总是大起大落的。葱姜蒜市场。
国内的蔬菜价格经常暴涨暴跌，从历史数据看，几乎每过三五年，葱姜蒜价格就会来一次几倍甚至十几倍的上涨。我们整理了大葱、生姜、大蒜近十五年的价格走势。
一起来感受下这三种蔬菜的跌宕起伏。这是大葱近十五年的价格走势。这是零七年的葱价大概五毛左右，到了零八年就涨到了六块。
涨了十二倍，然后是一一年到一二年，从七毛涨到五块一五年到一六年，从八毛涨到九块，一九年到二零年。
从九毛涨到现在的十块，可以看到，大葱价格每过四年左右就来一次十倍左右的涨价。再看生姜，零九年还是一块八。
到一零年就涨到了十块，然后一二年两块左右涨到一四年变成了二十块，一九年五块左右。到二零二零年中旬最高到过十七块。
生姜差不多是五年来一次大涨，涨幅也能有五到十倍。最后是上新闻次数最多，炒作最凶猛的大蒜。这是零九年的低点。
大概五毛左右，到了二零一零年就涨到了十二块，翻了二十多倍。截止是一五年的两块五左右。经过两年的连续上涨，一七年就到了十七块五。
然后是一八年从一块七涨到了一九年的十块钱左右。大蒜的涨跌周期是四年左右，除了葱姜蒜，应该再没有其他农产品的价格能如此的大起大落。
这过山车一样的价格走势，让股票看了都汗颜。为什么不起眼的葱姜蒜价格总是上窜下跳呢？主要有两个原因。
第一是农民喜欢跟风农产品跟一般的商品有个很大的区别。对一般商品来说，价格涨了，产量马上就能提高。随着供给的增加。
价格慢慢就降了，但农产品不行，因为农作物有很长的生长周期，所以即使葱姜蒜涨价了，产量在当年也提不上来了。
农民总是根据去年的价格决定今年的种植面积去年价高，今年就多种，去年价格低赔了钱，今年就少种。因为大多数农民的决策方式都差不多。
所以种植面积很容易就扎堆似的忽上忽下。如果去年村里有人种大葱，挣了不少钱，今年村里种大葱的人肯定会多很多。
大家都种大葱，葱价肯定会跌，种植面积的大起大落就导致了价格的暴涨暴跌。二零一八年大蒜行情好，蒜农挣到了钱。
到了二零零九年，全国的大蒜种植面积就增加了百分之二十二。接着就是大蒜滞销，蒜农亏损，农民种菜有点像炒股，喜欢追涨杀跌。
一种就都种不种就都不种葱姜蒜，价格大起大落的。第二个原因是游资的炒作。葱姜蒜市场有四个特点，首先他们都是小松蔬菜。
整体的盘子不大，价格很容易被操纵，投几个小目标影响不了小麦的价格，但肯定能影响大蒜的价格。然后葱姜蒜的产地集中。
方便大量收购，统一储存。以大蒜为例，产地主要集中在金乡、邳州中、木兰零这几个县。第三，因为葱姜蒜人人都要吃，顿顿少不了。
所以囤的货最终都能出手。第四是除大葱之外，算和香都比较耐储存，可以长时间的囤积。因为有这四个特点，所以葱姜蒜时长。
成了一个充满着投机资本的赌场。每当种植面积减少或者发生自然灾害时，批发商、中间商以及民间游资就会囤积、炒作、联合抬价。
葱姜蒜价格常常是涨则涨得离谱，跌则一塌糊涂。因为价格起伏太大，适合炒作，所以游资来了。而游资进来之后，正常的供需秩序就被破坏。
葱姜蒜价格波动的更猛了，这就形成一个怪圈，价格停不下来的大涨大跌。那问题来了，炒作葱姜蒜的油资到底是个啥？
游资就是各种想赚快钱的民间资本。简单说游资不是建厂房买设备的长期资本，而是什么赚钱做什么捞一笔就跑了。短期资本。
炒作葱姜蒜的资本形形色色，有地产商、煤老板、企业主的闲钱，有想一招暴富，加了杠杆进场的个人还有很多，本来就是做蔬菜生意的经销商。
当央行放水，民间资金充裕的时候，游资就活跃。此时的葱姜蒜价格一般也会大涨。二零零八年次贷危机之后，央行四个万亿就是。
到二零零九年，大蒜就被炒的火热迎来一波大涨。二零一四年，央行又搞了两次定向降准，还发放了七千多亿的麻辣粉。
然后打算在二零一五年二零一六年这两年又攀上了历史最高点。去年为了应对疫情冲击，m 二时隔多年重回两位数增长。
理论上，现在市场上的资金也不少，游资可能又跃跃欲试了，那游资又是怎样炒作蔬菜的以炒的最猛的大蒜为例，过程其实一点都不。
不复杂，就三个步骤，到主产区收大蒜，把大蒜存入冷库捂一段时间，然后卖掉。这张图是一五一六年大蒜炒作最火热时的价格走势。
大蒜五月底收获，七月份存入冷库，可以看到二零一五年与二零一六年这两年大蒜价格的最低点都是在五月份的收获季。
然后七月份大蒜入库之后，价格就一直涨，一般来到来年的二三月份，也就是过年前后达到最高点。如果不考虑冷库费和大蒜的折损。
一五一六年在大蒜收货季去产地收大蒜，然后囤到冷库里存半年。那年底的时候就差不多能赚百分之二百。除了单纯的收算屯蒜。
炒大蒜还有一种更高级方式，那就是直接到大蒜主产区，包母在大蒜还没长好的时候，算沙会根据大蒜的苗情和蒜农谈好每亩大蒜的价格。
提前出资圈站货源，收蒜屯算不难，难的是看透或者猜准算价。赌对大蒜的价格走势，因为算价总是忽上忽下。
所以堵塞的风险很大。在这个蔬菜赌场里，一夜暴富和倾家荡产的人一样多。
二零零五年以后，葱姜蒜市场形成了大概四年一轮的波动周期，因为价格总是暴涨暴跌，所以农民种菜犹如炒股，播种的时候就想买入股票。
然后经历一年的大涨大跌，最后辛苦一年是赚是赔，根本猜不到。即使到了收获季，早卖两天和婉卖两天的收入也差的很大。
收购价几乎一天一变，国内是七亿多人搞农业，六亿人消费。从事农业的人口太多，导致国内农业的规模化不足，再加上蔬菜本身放不住。
周转余地小，所以分散的菜农在蔬菜批发商面前，几乎没有一家能够。
菜价涨了，农民是受益最少的群体。菜价弱了，农民是受伤最大的群体。今年葱价虽然涨得很高，卖的晚的农民收入不错，但如果把二零一九年肿大村的亏损考虑进来。
两年一，平均农民得到了好处，其实很有限。

The price of green onions has skyrocketed, and many people who are still pursuing the freedom of cherries turn around to find that the once stable freedom of green onions is gone. This is the price trend of green onions in the price information system of the Ministry of Agriculture.
At this time last year, the price of green onions was RMB 2.8, and now it is RMB 9.5, which is a 339% increase in a year. In addition to green onions, the recent prices of pork, eggs, and peppers.
They have all gone up a lot, and the prices of so many foods have risen together, which is a bit of an inflationary posture. Let's take a look at the latest c p i data. In December, c p i increased by 0.2% year-on-year.
For the entire year of 2020, prices have increased by 2.5%. From the data point of view, prices are quite stable, and inflation has not come. The price increase of green onions is not due to the general price increase caused by inflation.
But for another reason. The first is that last year's green onion production was severely reduced. Because the price of green onions in 2019 was too low, it fell to a few cents per catty at one time. Therefore, in 2020, many farmers are not growing green onions.
The national green onion planting area has decreased by about 30%. In addition, the main green onion producing areas such as Shandong and Yunnan experienced heavy rainfall last year. The green onions are drought-tolerant and flood-resistant.
Many onion seedlings have died, the planting area has shrunk, coupled with the disaster-stricken green onions, the price will naturally rise. The second reason for the rise in green onion prices is capital speculation.
Last year, corn ushered in a big bull market not seen in ten years. It only rose 40% in one year, while the price of green onions rose by 300% in only half a year. If there is no hot money to fuel the flames, green onion prices will not fluctuate so sharply.
Since the ad valorem price rose in June last year, a lot of hot money poured into the market, and the ad valorem doubled almost every three months. There were many dealers or middlemen who made huge profits.
Why does the price of onion, ginger and garlic soar at every turn, why is the garlic so cruel, Jiang Lijun rushes forward, always on the hot search. Prices always fluctuate. Cong Jiang Suan market.
Domestic vegetable prices often skyrocketed and plummeted. From historical data, almost every three to five years, the price of onion, ginger, and garlic will rise several times or even more than ten times. We have compiled the price trends of green onions, ginger, and garlic in the past fifteen years.
Feel the ups and downs of these three vegetables together. This is the price trend of green onions in the past fifteen years. In 2007, the price of green onions was about 50 cents, but in 2008 it had risen to 6 yuan.
It has risen twelve times, and then from one year to one year, from seven to five yuan in 15 to 16 years, from eight to nine yuan, from 19 to 20.
From nine mao to the current ten yuan, we can see that the price of green onions increases by about ten times every four years or so. Looking at ginger again, it is still a piece of eight in 2009.
By ten years it had risen to ten yuan, and then it rose from two yuan in one or two years to twenty yuan in four years, and about five yuan in 19 years. By mid-2020, it has reached a maximum of 17 yuan.
Ginger has risen almost once in five years, and the increase can also be five to ten times. Finally, it is the garlic with the most news and the most ferocious hype. This is the low point of 2009.
It was about fifty cents, and in 2010 it had risen to twelve yuan, which was more than twenty times higher. The cut-off is about 2.5 yuan for one to five years. After two consecutive years of rising, it reached 17 yuan in 2017.
Then it rose from one yuan to seven yuan in 2018 to about ten yuan in 19 years. The rise and fall cycle of garlic is about four years. Except for onion, ginger and garlic, there should be no other agricultural products whose prices can fluctuate so sharply.
The price trend of this roller coaster made the stock feel ashamed. Why does the humble green onion, ginger and garlic price always jump up and down? There are two main reasons.
The first is that farmers like to follow the trend. There is a big difference between agricultural products and ordinary commodities. For general commodities, if the price rises, the output will increase immediately. As the supply increases.
Prices have slowly dropped, but agricultural products are not good, because crops have a long growth cycle, so even if the price of onion, ginger, and garlic rose, the output would not be able to increase that year.
Farmers always decide based on last year's prices to plant acreage this year. Last year, the price was high. This year there will be more varieties. Last year's low prices have lost money, and this year they will plant less. Because most farmers' decision-making methods are similar.
So the planting area can easily get up and down like a bunch. If someone in the village planted green onions last year and made a lot of money, there would be a lot more people growing green onions in the village this year.
Everyone grows green onions, and the price of green onions will definitely fall. The large ups and downs of the planting area have caused the prices to soar and plummet. The market for garlic was good in 2018, and garlic farmers made money.
By 2009, the country's garlic planting area had increased by 22%. Then there is the unsalable garlic, and garlic farmers are losing money. Farmers growing vegetables are a bit like stocks, and they like to chase the rise and kill the fall.
If you don't grow one, you don't grow onion, ginger, and garlic, and the price fluctuates sharply. The second reason is the hype of hot money. Cong Jiang Suan Market has four characteristics. First of all, they are all Komatsu vegetables.
The overall plate is small, and the price is easily manipulated. A few small targets will not affect the price of wheat, but it will definitely affect the price of garlic. Then the production areas of Cong Jiang Garlic are concentrated.
Convenient for large-scale acquisitions and unified storage. Taking garlic as an example, the production areas are mainly concentrated in the counties of Jinxiang, Pizhouzhong, and Mulanling. Third, because everyone has to eat green onion, ginger and garlic, every meal is indispensable.
So the stocked goods can eventually be sold. The fourth is that in addition to scallions, it is more durable for storage and can be stored for a long time. Because of these four characteristics, the time is long.
Become a casino full of speculative capital. Whenever the planting area is reduced or natural disasters occur, wholesalers, middlemen, and private hot money will hoard, speculate, and jointly raise prices.
The price of onion, ginger and garlic often rises ridiculously, and falls into a mess. Because the price fluctuates too much and is suitable for speculation, hot money is coming. After the hot money came in, the normal order of supply and demand was destroyed.
The price of onion, ginger and garlic has fluctuated more violently, and this has formed a strange circle, and the price can't stop rising and falling sharply. So the question is, what is the oil that is used to hype onion, ginger, and garlic?
Hot money is all kinds of private capital that wants to make quick money. Simply put, hot money is not the long-term capital for building factories and buying equipment, but just ran away after making a fortune. Short-term capital.
There are many different types of capital speculating on Congjiangsu. There are real estate developers, coal bosses, and business owners who have spare money. There are many individuals who want to get rich and use leverage to enter the market. They are originally distributors in the vegetable business.
When the central bank releases water and private funds are abundant, hot money becomes active. At this time, the price of onion, ginger and garlic will generally rise sharply. After the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, the central bank was four trillion yuan.
By 2009, garlic was frying and ushered in a surge. In 2014, the central bank made two targeted RRR cuts and issued more than 700 billion spicy noodles.
Then it is planned to reach the highest point in history in the two years of 2015 and 2016. In response to the impact of the epidemic last year, m2 returned to double-digit growth after many years.
In theory, there are a lot of funds in the market now, and hot money may be eager to try again. How hot money is used to speculate vegetables, for example, the most fiercely fried garlic, the process is not at all.
It's not complicated, just three steps, go to the main producing area to harvest garlic, store the garlic in the cold storage for a period of time, and then sell it. This picture shows the price trend of garlic during the hottest period in 1516.
Garlic is harvested at the end of May and stored in cold storage in July. It can be seen that the lowest point of garlic prices in 2015 and 2016 was the harvest season in May.
Then, after garlic was put into storage in July, the price kept rising, and it usually came to February and March of the following year, which is the highest point around the New Year. If you do not consider the cold storage fee and the loss of garlic.
In 1516, during the garlic harvest season, I went to the producing area to harvest garlic, and then hoarded it in the cold storage for half a year. At the end of that year it was almost 200% profitable. In addition to the simple revenue Tuning Garlic.
There is a more advanced way to fry garlic, which is to go directly to the main garlic producing areas. When the garlic has not grown well, the sand will negotiate the price of garlic per acre with the garlic farmers according to the garlic seedlings.
It’s not difficult to invest in the supply of funds in advance and collect garlic, but the difficulty is to see through or guess the price accurately. Bet on the price trend of garlic, because the price always fluctuates.
So the risk of blockage is great. In this vegetable casino, there are as many people who get rich overnight and bankrupt their families.
After 2005, the onion, ginger, and garlic market has formed a volatility cycle of about four years. Because prices are always rising and falling, farmers grow vegetables like stocks, and they want to buy stocks when they plant seeds.
Then after a year of ups and downs, in the last year of hard work, it is impossible to guess whether to make a profit or lose. Even in the harvest season, the income from selling two days early and selling for two days is very different.
The purchase price changes almost every day. In China, more than 700 million people engage in agriculture and 600 million people consume it. There are too many people engaged in agriculture, which has led to insufficient scale of domestic agriculture, and the vegetables themselves cannot hold back.
The turnover margin is small, so there are few vegetable farmers who are scattered in front of vegetable wholesalers.
Vegetable prices have risen, and farmers are the group that has benefited the least. Vegetable prices are weak, and farmers are the most injured group. Although the price of green onions has risen very high this year, and farmers who sold it late have a good income, if you take into account the losses of Zhuangda Village in 2019.
Every two years, the average farmer has benefited, but in fact it is very limited.