2021-03-01
周期还有机会吗?去年周期涨了一波,但是很明显不尽兴。最近很多人在问周期还有没有机会,今天告诉你。
周期主要看宏观经济,目前国内的宏观经济持续向好,工业生产全面回暖,预计二零二零年四季度g d p 同比增长百分之五点五。
是全球唯一保持正增长的大国。今年一季度因为基数低,所以增速会更快。g d p 同比增长超过百分之十,问题不大。
更有机构预测,同比增长百分之二十,经济快速增长将驱动周期品涨价。这在去年的煤炭、铝等周期品上已经有过表现。
加上疫苗投入市场,疫情得到控制后,国外经济也会复苏,这也会助推周期的行情。那么周期的机会要怎么把握?提到周期大家都会想到煤炭。
郑州煤电两个月涨了四倍,让人印象深刻。煤炭虽然需求很好,但是去年电煤价格已经被限制在了六百四十元每吨。
限价的问题会影响市场对煤炭板块的估值,所以很难再有大机会再说钢铁,这也是典型的周期行业。但是作为国际大宗商品的铁矿石。
涨价的趋势很难逆转,这就给钢铁行业带来了很大的成本压力,因此也难有行情。目前看比较有希望的就是有色。
国际铜价和铝价持续走强,铝价创出近两年的新高,而同价更是创出了二零一三年以来的新高。接下来全球经济金融复苏期以后。
铜铝价格可能再次走强,去年有色板块走出了华丰铝业,半个月接近翻倍。接下来这样的机会还会再次出现。其中一家公司是国内铝材的龙头。
凭借成本和技术优势持续获得超额利润,并且公司已经实现由传统加工向高端制造的升级。随着经济持续复苏。
公司成长空间有望进一步打开。
Is there still a chance for the cycle? Last year, the cycle rose by a wave, but it was obviously not full of happiness. Recently, many people are asking if there is any chance in the cycle, and I will tell you today.
The cycle mainly depends on the macro economy. At present, the domestic macro economy continues to improve, and industrial production is picking up in an all-round way. It is expected that g d p in the fourth quarter of 2020 will increase by 5.5% year-on-year.
It is the only major country in the world that maintains positive growth. Because of the low base in the first quarter of this year, the growth rate will be faster. g d p increased by more than 10% year-on-year, which is not a big problem.
More institutions predict that with a year-on-year growth of 20%, rapid economic growth will drive the price of cyclical products. This has already been demonstrated in cyclical products such as coal and aluminum last year.
Coupled with the introduction of vaccines on the market, after the epidemic is brought under control, foreign economies will also recover, which will also boost the cyclical market. So how to grasp the opportunity of the cycle? When it comes to cycles, everyone thinks of coal.
Zhengzhou Coal and Electricity has quadrupled in two months, which is impressive. Although the demand for coal is very good, the price of thermal coal has been limited to 640 yuan per ton last year.
The issue of price limit will affect the market's valuation of the coal sector, so it is difficult to have a big opportunity to talk about steel, which is also a typical cyclical industry. But iron ore is an international commodity.
The trend of price increases is difficult to reverse, which has brought a lot of cost pressure to the steel industry, so it is difficult to have a market. The one that looks promising at the moment is colored.
International copper and aluminum prices continued to strengthen, aluminum prices hit a new high in the past two years, and the same price hit a new high since 2013. After the period of global economic and financial recovery.
Copper and aluminum prices may strengthen again. Last year, the non-ferrous sector moved out of Huafeng Aluminum and nearly doubled in half a month. This opportunity will reappear in the future. One of the companies is the leading domestic aluminum company.
Relying on cost and technical advantages, it continues to obtain excess profits, and the company has realized the upgrade from traditional processing to high-end manufacturing. As the economy continues to recover.
The company's growth space is expected to be further opened up.
2021-02-28
二零二一年到了,新年新气象,在这里首先祝大家抓大牛避雷坑账户长虹,万事大吉。关于今年行情的看法,目前机构普遍看好春季躁动。
那么具体会有哪些机会?接下来我会陆续给大家分享。所以一定要关注每年一号文都是关于农业的,历来农业板块也有春季行情的传统。
所以我们新年第一个视频就来聊农业。
目前农业最核心的话题就是粮食安全,不仅放到了首要位置,并且还反复强调这里面种业最近首次提到。
要坚决打好种业翻身仗。很多人觉得奇怪,我们杂交水稻产量那么高,怎么种业还要翻身?
那只是杂交水稻,从全球种子市场份额来看,前几位没有一家中国公司,像我们用的玉米种子很多都是belt。
而玉米在种子市场的份额又是最高的,达到百分之二十三。所以要打好种业的翻身仗,关键就在玉米种子。
并且经过近几年的供给侧改革,玉米种子库存处于低位。考虑到今年玉米种植效益明显提升以及生猪存栏恢复带来的饲用需求的回暖。
玉米种子需求将明显增加,供需的矛盾也将会推动玉米种子的行情。接下来的机会我们就要在玉米种子里找。
其中一家公司玉米种子国内领先,并且在玉米转基因技术方面储备丰富。在这场玉米种子的翻身账中转基因。
就是农业的关键核心技术随着应用的不断深入,公司有望直接受益。
2021 is here, and the new year is new. Here, first of all, I wish you all the best for catching the account of Daniu lightning pit Changhong. Regarding the views on the market this year, institutions are generally optimistic about the spring disturbance.
So what are the specific opportunities? Next, I will share with you one after another. Therefore, we must pay attention to the annual No. 1 document is about agriculture, and the agricultural sector has always had the tradition of spring market.
So we will talk about agriculture in the first video of the new year.
At present, the core topic of agriculture is food security, which not only puts it in the first place, but also repeatedly emphasizes that the seed industry has mentioned it for the first time recently.
We must resolutely fight the seed industry's turnaround. Many people find it strange that our hybrid rice output is so high, why the seed industry has to turn around?
That's just hybrid rice. From the perspective of the global seed market share, the top few do not have a Chinese company. Many of the corn seeds we use are belts.
And the share of corn in the seed market is the highest, reaching 23%. Therefore, the key to a good turnaround in the seed industry lies in corn seeds.
And after supply-side reforms in recent years, corn seed stocks are at a low level. Taking into account the significant increase in corn planting efficiency this year and the recovery of feed demand brought about by the restoration of pig stocks.
The demand for corn seeds will increase significantly, and the contradiction between supply and demand will also promote the market for corn seeds. We will look for the next opportunity in corn seeds.
One of the companies is the domestic leader in corn seeds and has abundant reserves of corn genetically modified technology. Genetically modified in this turning over of corn seeds.
It is the key core technology of agriculture, as the application continues to deepen, the company is expected to directly benefit.
2021-02-27
新的一年还有哪些机会?今天来聊聊军工,前不久刚提出了确保二零二七年实现建军百年奋斗目标这全新百年目标。
这笔此前曾提出的在二零三五年实现国防和军队现代化时间节点进一步提前,而要实现这个目标,我们就需要加快武器装备现代化。
加快升级换代和智能化发展未来新型先进武器装备采购数量有望显著提升,相关军工产业链有望受益。具体有哪些呢?
军机就是其中之一。数量方面,目前我国军机数量是三千两百六十架,而美军是一万三千两百三十二架,是我们的四倍。结构方面,我军军机以二代机、三代机为主。
四代机歼二零仅列装了十九架,而美军已经拥有一百七十七架f 二十二和一百九十六架f 三十五,并且我们周边的日韩陆续采购f 三十五,使得我们在四代机竞争中逐渐失去优势。
因此接下来四代机的短板有望尽快补上,数量有可能明显增加,这就带来了歼二零产业链的机会。其中一家公司是国内唯一一家。
战斗机整机标的,并且航母上的舰载机也是公司提供。未来五年,随着空军和海军的发展,公司的成长空间将更加广。
What are the opportunities in the new year? Let’s talk about the military industry today. Not long ago, I just put forward the brand new century-old goal of ensuring the achievement of the century-old goal of building the army by 2027.
This previously proposed time point for the realization of national defense and military modernization in 2035 is further advanced. To achieve this goal, we need to accelerate the modernization of weapons and equipment.
Accelerate the upgrading and intelligent development of the future. The number of new advanced weapons and equipment purchases is expected to increase significantly, and the relevant military industry chain is expected to benefit. What are the specifics?
Military aircraft is one of them. In terms of quantity, the current number of my country's military aircraft is 3,260, while the number of US military aircraft is 13,232, which is four times ours. In terms of structure, our military's military aircraft are mainly second-generation and third-generation aircraft.
The fourth-generation J-20 has only 19 installed, while the US military already has 177 f 22 and 196 f 35, and our neighboring Japan and South Korea have successively purchased f 3 Fifteenth, we gradually lose our advantage in the competition of fourth-generation machines.
Therefore, the shortcomings of the next four generations of aircraft are expected to be made up as soon as possible, and the number may increase significantly, which brings opportunities for the J-20 industry chain. One of these companies is the only one in China.
The entire fighter aircraft is the standard, and the carrier-based aircraft on the aircraft carrier is also provided by the company. In the next five years, with the development of the Air Force and Navy, the company's growth space will be broader.
个人理念:创新、超越、品牌、责任
创 新:不断创新,做行业较好、较优的产品,服务于社会
超 越:超越梦想,超越自己,向更远更好的目标不断努力
品 牌:重视品牌、实施品牌战略,做行业佼佼者
责 任:为社会、为顾客、为用户提供较优服务
客户**:尊重客户,尊重他人,微笑服务
团队合作:共享共担,平凡人做非凡事,共享成功快乐,共担困难责任
拥抱变化:迎接变化,勇于创新,理性对待,充分沟通,诚意配合
诚 信:诚实正直,言出必践,诚实正直,言行一致
激 情:乐观向上,永不言弃,不断自我激励,努力提升业绩
敬 业:专业执着,精益求精,持续学习,不断完善