股票成长之源——内在价值,股价上涨最基本的逻辑是什么?
很大一部分人说股价上涨最基本的逻辑是资金推动。也有人说,股价上涨的逻辑是基本面向好。还有人说,股价上涨最基本的逻辑是分红。这些答案都正确但不全面。作为一名有二十年经验的投资者来说,我认为股价上涨最基本的逻辑是上市公司内在价值的增长。
有很多朋友认为这句话很空,什么是内在价值的增长?怎么表现出来?当我向朋友们举了个例子后,朋友们瞬间就明白了,是什么例子呢?
首先内在价值这个词最早出现在巴菲特致股东信里。那什么是上市公司的内在价值呢?现在我与巴菲特所持有的可口可乐来举个例子吧。
巴菲特于一九八八年以五点九三亿的成本买入了一千四百十七万股的可口可乐公司股票,占可口可乐股份的比例为百分之四。假设巴菲特买入后,可口可乐公司就停止上市了。那么三十年后的可口可乐公司是什么情况呢?三十年后的二零一七年。可口可乐公司分红竟然达到了六十三点二亿。假设巴菲特在三十年内没有增持过可口可乐公司的股票,那么他所持有的百分之四的可口可乐股份。在二零一七年居然能拿到二点五二亿元的分红,这意味着当初五点九三亿的投资在三十年后每年的投资收益率竟然高达四十二点五。如此高的收益率让人羡慕。
当然,这百分之四的股份内在价值已远远超过了五点九三亿元。根据最新市场价格计算,百分之四可口可乐股份的价格高达九十五亿元。听到这里,大家是否对内在价值有了更深刻的理解呢?经济无非柴米油盐。
What is the most basic logic for stock price rise?
A large number of people say that the most basic logic for stock price rises is funding. It is also said that the logic of stock price rise is basically good. Others say that the most basic logic for stock price increases is dividends. These answers are correct but not comprehensive. As an investor with 20 years of experience, I think the most basic logic for stock price increases is the increase in the intrinsic value of listed companies.
Many friends think that this sentence is very empty, what is the growth of intrinsic value? How to show it?
When I gave an example to my friends, my friends instantly understood what example it was.
First of all, the term intrinsic value first appeared in Buffett's letter to shareholders. So what is the intrinsic value of listed companies? Let me give you an example of Coca-Cola held by Buffett.
Buffett bought 14.17 million shares of The Coca-Cola Company at a cost of 59.3 billion in 1988, accounting for 4% of Coca-Cola’s shares. Suppose that after Buffett bought it, Coca-Cola ceased to go public. So what will happen to the Coca-Cola Company thirty years from now? Thirty years later, 2017.
Coca-Cola's dividends reached 6.32 billion. Assuming that Buffett has not increased his holdings of Coca-Cola's shares in 30 years, then he holds 4% of Coca-Cola's shares. In 2017, I was able to get a dividend of 252 million yuan, which means that the initial investment of 59.3 billion yuan will have an annual investment return rate of 42.5 million after 30 years. Such a high rate of return is enviable.
Of course, the intrinsic value of this 4% of the shares has far exceeded 591 million yuan.
According to the latest market price calculation, the price of 4% of Coca-Cola shares is as high as 9.5 billion yuan. After hearing this, do you have a deeper understanding of inner value?
Golden Chicken is nothing more than firewood, rice, oil and salt, pay attention to Xiaopan, and create value for you.