家庭财富如何保值？中国家庭最常见的理财途径有三个，股市、楼市和银行存款。银行理财虽然破除了刚性兑付。
但我们仍可以把它归为利息稍高一点的存款。我们看一下过去十八年这三类资产的表现。从图中我们能看到房产的年均回报率。
超过了百分之十一，而银行存款的年均回报率仅有百分之二。如果两个家庭一个把钱存银行，一个全款买房，那两个家庭在十八年后。
财富上会有五倍的差距，而如果买房的家庭是按揭买房，也就是加杠杆，那两个家庭的财务差距则会达到十倍以上。
一代人的时间只因为把钱投在了不同的资产上，最终就变成了两个阶层的家庭。从图中能看到，银行存款长期低于通货膨胀率。
也就是说，存定期存款，家庭财富一直在缩水。虽然历史数据告诉我们，买房和炒股的年均收益远高于存款。
但大多数家庭还是会把钱存到银行，因为存款更安全，即使实际利率是负的，但名义上的连本带息钱看起来还是多了。
炒股和买房都有风险，赔钱的套牢的例子很多。安全第一的银行存款始终是大多数家庭的第一选择。我们生活的世界在二零二零年发生了很多深刻的变化。
正式表述是百年未有之大变局，世界正在剧烈变迁，神庙堂与江湖的共识。大变局之下，辛苦积攒的家庭财富是我们生存的根本。
我们应该把钱存在银行保持随时取用的流动性呢，还是投资楼市股市追求家庭财富的增值呢？美股在三月份四次熔断。
然后大众商品的价格跳水。二零二零年的开局称得上是风声鹤唳，把钱存进银行赚点钱包看起来更稳妥一些。这是大多数中国家庭在一季度的选择。
一季度，国内居民的存款一下子增加了六点五万亿。一个个小家庭对危机做出的反应，汇集成了银行存款的剧增。但令人意想不到的反转出现在了二、三季度。
二、三季度，中美两国的股市、楼市双双逆风翻盘，楼市股市迎来了少见的双牛。股市方面，沪深三百时隔五年重回四千七百年以上。
而美国的纳斯达克指数更是创下历史新高。楼市方面，中国的新房售价与美国的房价指数也双双刷新记录。
在全球经济低迷风险事件频发的二零二零年，为什么股市和楼市的表现还是这么好？
我们回顾一下中国房地产的长期牛市，就能找到二零二零年资产价格上涨的答案。关于国内长期坚挺的房价，有一个流传广泛的解释。
楼市是货币的蓄水池，从二零一四年之前的外汇占款到近几年的麻辣粉和酸辣粉，人民银行不断增发的货币都流到了楼市。
所以房价一涨再涨，楼市长期作为货币的蓄水池。所以楼市长期牛市，今年楼市股市终于雨露均沾。所以楼市、股市双牛。
二零二零年是过多的货币发行带来了资产价格的上涨。理论上，货币的发行速度应该跟社会财富的增长速度一致。
也就是说，全社会生产出来的东西多了多少钱就多印多少，这样才能保证物价稳定，既不通胀也不通缩。但现实中的各国。
尤其是今年的美国，与西方各国为了应对危机敞开了印钞，其结果就是货币增速远远的超过了经济增速多出来的货币。
就像无处宣泄的洪水，必须找个出口。货币的出口有两个，一个是商品市场，一个是金融市场。商品市场就是我们消费衣食住行的市场。
而金融市场就是投资股票、债券、地产和黄金的市场。如果货币的洪水流向了商品市场，体现物价的c p i 和p p i 就会大涨。
如果货币的洪水流向了金融市场，那金融资产的价格就会大涨。全球央行大放水之后，各国的c p i 都没怎么涨，但金融资产的价格却涨了不少。
这说明先验的钱都流进了金融市场。
那为什么超发的货币没有流到商品市场去抬高物价，而是流向了金融市场，抬高了股价和房价呢？超发的货币如果流向低收入群体。
那低收入群体有钱之后，为了改善生活，就会增加消费，购买更多商品。此时，更多的钱流向了商品市场，物价就会上涨。
反之，如果更多的货币流向富人，由于富人对普通的消费品的需求已经达到了上限，有更多的钱只会拿去投资和购买奢侈品。
所以不会抬高物价，只会推高资产价格或者奢侈品的价格。当前，全球的贫富分化已经达到了一个历史高点，贫富分化加剧的意思。
就是富人掌握的财富越来越多，钱一直在流向富人，因为富人拿走了更多的货币，所以商品价格涨得就少，而资产价格涨得就多。
一线城市房租下降，而房价上涨就是这个道理。正常来说，房租降了，投资房子的回报就低了，房价应该下降。
但现在正好相反，房租虽然降了，但房价却涨了。房租下降是因为低收入群体在今年的收入缩水，离开一线城市的越来越多。
而房价上涨则说明富人的资金充裕，投资需求旺盛。说了这么多，今年资产价格上涨的逻辑就很清楚了。简单说就是为了解决全球经济低迷的问题。
各国央行一起放水，放出去的水，通过富人流入金融市场，资产的价格就开始走高。
明白，今年股市楼市逆势翻盘的原因，我们就明白了。二零二零年之后，家庭财富保值的方法。如果二零二零年之后，钱还是越用越多。
那即便全球经济陷入衰退，更多的钱也能继续推高金融资产价格。这时我们应该买买金融资产，尽量不要存钱。反之。
如果二零二零年之后各国央行不放水了，经济低迷的同时，钱又少了，那金融资产的价格必定下跌。这时存钱就是最好的选择。
所以，想要家庭财富保值，最关键的就是要搞清楚二零二零年之后，全球的货币环境是松还是紧，央行的水是更大了还是更小了。
桥水基金的结论是，二零二零年的我们正处在一个长约八十年的超长货币周期的末端。未来全球持续的货币宽松已成定局。
我们把视野拉长到七十六年前的一九四四年，一九四四年是我们当前所处货币周期的起点。这一年，布雷顿森林体系建立。
美元霸权确立从一九四四年到现在的这个货币周期经历了两个大变化。第一是一九七一年商品货币变成了法定货币，第二是二零零八年以后。
各国央行开始频繁的量化宽松，这两个变化注定了二零二零年之后钱会越印越多，越来越毛。先看第一个变化。
商品货币变成法定货币，商品货币就是用真金白银当钱。法定货币就是法律规定纸币是钱，所以大家用纸当钱。
商品货币与法定货币是货币的两个形态，这两个形态在历史上不停的轮回。每一个货币周期的开端都是金银做货币。
结尾都是法币滥发信用崩盘。一九四四年的布雷顿森林体系确定了美元的世界货币地位，美元挂钩黄金，其他国家的货币挂钩美元。
因为布雷顿森林体系下，各国货币都有明确的含金量，所以此时的货币都是商品货币。在商品货币时代，各国央行。
都不具备大量印钞票的能力，挖出多少黄金就印多少货币，货币数量跟黄金储量是有个固定比例的。因为黄金的开采速度很慢。
所以货币的增发速度就很慢。在商品的货币时代，钱不但不会变毛，而且会经常的通货紧缩。此时把钱存在银行拿固定利息。
就是最好的投资。后来因为美元滥发，美元数量跟黄金储量挂不上钩了。布雷顿森林体系在一九七一年解体，我们所处的货币周期。
迎来了第一个变化，商品货币结束，法定货币来临。当所有货币都跟黄金白银脱钩时，货币周期的第二个变化，也就是央行大量超发货币的时代。
很快就来了，因为法定货币想印多少就印多少。为了刺激经济增长，各国央行开始频繁的量化宽松，也就是大量的印钞票。要。
发行刺激经济的手段有两种，一种是降息，一种是发行货币，降息是最健康，也是最有效的政策工具。降息可刺激消费，刺激投资。
也能降低债务人的还款负担，所以降息就能够促进经济增长。这有点像开车时踩油门，每一届政府都希望经济发展的快一点，再快一点。
所以油门会越踩越猛，利率也会越降越低。美国当前的基准利率已经到零，日本和欧洲正在执行负利率，这意味着主要国家的油门已经踩到底了。
依靠央行降息刺激经济增长的这条路已经走到头了。i m f 在临终发布的全球经济展望中预测，今年全球经济增速为负的百分之四点九。
其中，美国经济在今年将萎缩百分之扒欧元区萎缩百分之十点二，日本萎缩百分之五点八。今年全球经济衰退是必然的。
而欧美利率又低无可低，所以为了解决衰退的问题，大印钞票就成了不二之选。这是美联储的资产负债表，这是今年放的水。
这是欧美、中日四国央行的资产负债表。这是今年放的水，正常来说水放的太多，物价就会暴涨，然后就会社会动荡，政府信用破产。
就跟津巴布韦是一样的，各国央行在印钱时，因为担心通货膨胀率报表，所以会紧盯着通胀率。美联储的通胀目标是百分之二。
如果货币发行的太多，通胀率超过了百分之二，那就少发一点。我们前面说过，因为全球的贫富分化加剧，当前很多国家的货币洪水。
都通过富人流进了金融市场。所以钱虽然业了很多，但是代表商品价格的通胀率却涨的不多，涨的主要还是金融资产的价格。
美联储在美股熔断后开启了无上限量化宽松，美国基础货币的数量翻倍，美股很快创下历史新高，但美国的通胀率表现淡定。
因为美联储一旦开闸放水，其他国家也必须跟进，这是避免被美国割韭菜的最好方法。所以在国外央行同步放水的背景下。
我们国内也会跟着被动的增发货币，我们与美国的区别只是货币增发的多与少。
在八十年货币周期的末端，为了解决疫情导致的经济衰退，各国央行在未来应该还会继续放水。全球普遍宽松的货币环境。
短期内难以逆转金融资产作为货币蓄水池，在未来应该还会继续上涨，但是股市有风险，楼市也迎来了密集调控。
投资还是需要谨慎，上面说的这些都是建立在一个相对平稳的国际环境之下。如果极端的事件发生，那我们还是要钻进现。

How to preserve the value of family wealth? There are three most common financial management channels for Chinese households: the stock market, the property market and bank deposits. Although bank financial management has broken the rigid payment.
But we can still classify it as a deposit with a slightly higher interest rate. Let's take a look at the performance of these three types of assets in the past eighteen years. From the figure we can see the average annual rate of return on real estate.
Over 11%, while the average annual rate of return on bank deposits is only 2%. If two families put their money in the bank and the other buys a house in full, those two families will be eighteen years later.
There will be a five-fold gap in wealth, and if the family buying a house buys a house through a mortgage, that is, with leverage, the financial gap between the two families will reach more than ten times.
Only because one generation of people invested money in different assets, they eventually became a two-class family. It can be seen from the figure that bank deposits have been lower than the inflation rate for a long time.
In other words, by depositing time deposits, family wealth has been shrinking. Although historical data tells us, the average annual income of buying houses and stocks is much higher than deposits.
But most families still deposit their money in the bank because deposits are safer. Even if the real interest rate is negative, the nominal amount of money with interest and principal still seems to be too much.
There are risks in both stocks and house purchases, and there are many examples of losing money. Safety-first bank deposits are always the first choice for most families. The world we live in has undergone many profound changes in 2020.
The formal statement is a major change unseen in a century, the world is undergoing drastic changes, and the consensus between the temples and the rivers and lakes. Under the great changes, family wealth accumulated through hard work is the foundation of our survival.
Should we keep the money in the bank to maintain the liquidity for use at any time, or should we invest in the property market and the stock market to pursue the appreciation of family wealth? US stocks fuse four times in March.
Then the prices of mass goods plunged. The start of 2020 can be said to be a turmoil, and it seems safer to deposit money in a bank to earn a wallet. This is the choice of most Chinese families in the first quarter.
In the first quarter, the deposits of domestic residents increased by 6.5 trillion. The responses of small families to the crisis have converged into a sharp increase in bank deposits. But the unexpected reversal occurred in the second and third quarters.
In the second and third quarters, the stock and property markets of China and the United States both reversed headwinds, and the property and stock markets ushered in rare double bulls. In the stock market, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 have returned to more than 4,700 years after a lapse of five years.
And the Nasdaq index in the United States is a record high. In terms of the property market, China's new house prices and the US house price index both set new records.
In 2020, when the global economic downturn and risk events frequently occur, why did the stock and property markets still perform so well?
If we look back at the long-term bull market in China's real estate industry, we can find the answer to the increase in asset prices in 2020. There is a widely circulated explanation for the long-term strong domestic housing prices.
The property market is a reservoir of currency. From the foreign exchange funds before 2014 to the spicy and sour noodles in recent years, the People's Bank of China has continuously issued more currency to the property market.
Therefore, housing prices have risen again and again, and the property market has long served as a reservoir of currency. Therefore, the property market has been in a long-term bull market. Therefore, the property market and the stock market are both bullish.
In 2020, too many currency issuances have brought about an increase in asset prices. In theory, the speed of currency issuance should be consistent with the growth rate of social wealth.
In other words, the whole society will print as much money as there is more, so as to ensure price stability without inflation or deflation. But countries in reality.
Especially this year, the United States and Western countries opened up money printing in response to the crisis. As a result, the currency growth rate far exceeded the currency that the economy grew faster.
Just like a flood with nowhere to vent, an exit must be found. There are two exports of currency, one is the commodity market and the other is the financial market. The commodity market is the market where we consume food, clothing, housing and transportation.
The financial market is the market for investing in stocks, bonds, real estate and gold. If the flood of money flows to the commodity market, c p i and p p i, which reflect prices, will rise sharply.
If the flood of money flows to the financial market, the price of financial assets will rise sharply. After the global central banks released the water, the c p i of various countries has not risen much, but the prices of financial assets have risen a lot.
This shows that a priori money has flowed into the financial market.
Then why did the super-issued currency not flow to the commodity market to raise prices, but to the financial market, raising stock prices and housing prices? If the over-issued currency flows to low-income groups.
After the low-income group has money, in order to improve their lives, they will increase their consumption and buy more goods. At this time, more money flows to the commodity market, and prices will rise.
Conversely, if more money flows to the rich, since the rich’s demand for ordinary consumer goods has reached the upper limit, more money will only be used to invest and buy luxury goods.
Therefore, it will not raise prices, but will only push up asset prices or the prices of luxury goods. At present, the global polarization between the rich and the poor has reached a historical high, which means that the polarization between the rich and the poor has intensified.
That is, the wealth held by the rich is increasing, and money has been flowing to the rich. Because the rich took more money, commodity prices rose less, and asset prices rose more.
This is the reason why rents in first-tier cities have fallen, and house prices have risen. Normally, if the rent falls, the return on investing in a house will be lower, and house prices should fall.
But now it's the opposite. Although rents have fallen, house prices have risen. The decline in rents is due to the shrinking income of low-income groups this year, and more and more people are leaving first-tier cities.
The rise in house prices indicates that the wealthy have ample funds and strong investment demand. Having said that, the logic of asset price increases this year is very clear. Simply put, it is to solve the problem of the global economic downturn.
Central banks of various countries release water together, and the released water flows into the financial market through the rich, and asset prices begin to rise.
Understand, we will understand why the stock market and the property market reversed the trend this year. After 2020, the method of family wealth preservation. If after 2020, the money will be used more and more.
Even if the global economy falls into recession, more money can continue to push up financial asset prices. At this time, we should buy financial assets and try not to save money. on the contrary.
If central banks of various countries do not release water after 2020, and while the economy is in a downturn, there is less money, then the prices of financial assets will definitely fall. Saving money is the best option at this time.
Therefore, in order to preserve the value of household wealth, the most important thing is to figure out whether the global monetary environment is loose or tight after 2020, and whether the central bank's water is larger or smaller.
The conclusion of the Bridgewater Fund is that in 2020, we are at the end of an ultra-long currency cycle that lasts about 80 years. The continued global monetary easing in the future is a foregone conclusion.
We extended our horizons to 1944, 76 years ago. 1944 is the starting point of our current currency cycle. This year, the Bretton Woods system was established.
The establishment of dollar hegemony has undergone two major changes in the currency cycle from 1944 to the present. The first is that commodity currency became legal tender in 1971, and the second is after 2008.
Central banks of various countries have begun frequent quantitative easing. These two changes are destined to print more and more money after 2020. Let's look at the first change.
Commodity currency becomes legal tender, and commodity currency uses real gold and silver as money. Legal tender means that the law stipulates that paper currency is money, so everyone uses paper as money.
Commodity currency and legal tender are two forms of currency, and these two forms have been reincarnated in history. The beginning of every currency cycle is gold and silver as currency.
At the end, it is the credit collapse of fiat currency spam. The Bretton Woods system of 1944 established the U.S. dollar's status as the world currency. The U.S. dollar was linked to gold, and the currencies of other countries were linked to the U.S. dollar.
Because under the Bretton Woods system, currencies of all countries have a clear gold content, so the currencies at this time are all commodity currencies. In the era of commodity currencies, central banks of various countries.
They don’t have the ability to print a lot of money, and print as much money as they dig up. There is a fixed ratio between the amount of money and the reserves of gold. Because the speed of gold mining is very slow.
Therefore, the rate of currency issuance is very slow. In the era of commodity currency, not only will money not become gross, but it will also be deflationary. At this time, the money is deposited in the bank for a fixed interest.
It is the best investment. Later, because the US dollar was issued indiscriminately, the number of US dollars was no longer linked to the gold reserves. The Bretton Woods system disintegrated in 1971, the currency cycle we are in.
Ushered in the first change, the end of commodity currency and the advent of legal tender. When all currencies are decoupled from gold and silver, the second change in the currency cycle is the era when central banks are issuing a large amount of money.
Coming soon, because you can print as much legal tender as you want. In order to stimulate economic growth, central banks of various countries have begun frequent quantitative easing, that is, printing a large amount of money. want.
There are two ways to stimulate the economy, one is to cut interest rates, and the other is to issue currency. Interest rate cuts are the healthiest and most effective policy tool. Lower interest rates can stimulate consumption and stimulate investment.
It can also reduce the debtor's repayment burden, so cutting interest rates can promote economic growth. This is a bit like stepping on the accelerator while driving. Every government hopes that the economy will develop faster and faster.
So the accelerator will be stepped harder and harder, and the interest rate will drop lower and lower. The current benchmark interest rate in the United States has reached zero, and Japan and Europe are implementing negative interest rates, which means that the throttle of major countries has been stepped on to the bottom.
The path of relying on the central bank to cut interest rates to stimulate economic growth has come to an end. i m f predicted in the global economic outlook released at the end that the global economic growth rate this year will be negative 4.9%.
Among them, the U.S. economy will shrink by percent this year, the Eurozone will shrink by 10.2 percent, and Japan will shrink by 5.8 percent. This year's global economic recession is inevitable.
The European and American interest rates are inexorably low, so in order to solve the problem of recession, printing money has become the best choice. This is the Fed's balance sheet, which is the release this year.
This is the balance sheet of the central banks of Europe, America, China and Japan. This is the water released this year. Normally, if too much water is released, prices will skyrocket, then social turmoil will result, and government credit will go bankrupt.
Just like Zimbabwe, when central banks print money, they are concerned about the inflation rate report, so they will keep an eye on the inflation rate. The Fed’s inflation target is 2%.
If too much currency is issued and the inflation rate exceeds 2%, then less is issued. As we said before, the current currency floods in many countries are due to the intensification of the global polarization between the rich and the poor.
All flowed into the financial market through the rich. Therefore, although money has been traded a lot, the inflation rate, which represents commodity prices, has not risen much, and the price of financial assets has risen mainly.
The Fed launched unlimited quantitative easing after the meltdown of US stocks, the number of US base currencies doubled, and US stocks quickly hit a record high, but the US inflation rate was calm.
Because once the Fed opens the gates and releases water, other countries must also follow up. This is the best way to avoid being cut by the United States. Therefore, in the context of simultaneous release of water by foreign central banks.
Our country will also passively issue additional currencies. The difference between us and the United States is only the amount of additional currency issuance.
At the end of the 80-year monetary cycle, in order to solve the economic recession caused by the epidemic, central banks of various countries should continue to release water in the future. A generally loose monetary environment around the world.
It is difficult to reverse financial assets as a currency reservoir in the short term, and it should continue to rise in the future, but the stock market is risky and the property market has also ushered in intensive control.
Investment still needs to be cautious. All of the above are based on a relatively stable international environment. If extreme events happen, then we still have to get into the situation.