经典股市日历效应Classic stock market calendar effect
炒股也要看日历，今天和大家分享股市中经典的日历效应，a 股中比较著名的日历效应有春季躁动，二月效应，春节后五穷六绝，七翻身，七上八下。
金九银十红，周一黑周四招商策略会魔咒、世界杯魔咒等等。日历效应的背后，是经济活动和人类心理活动的集中反应和轮回。
这些不成文的谚语或规律，虽然不一定百分之一百准确，但在现实股市波动中都能或多或少得到佐证。第一，春季躁动是一种特殊的日历效应。
指的是股票市场一般在一月至三月会有较大概率的阶段性上涨行情。万德统计显示，春季躁动最早可于十二月开启。
春节之后，上涨行情有望加强。近十年来，上证综指、中小板指和创业板指在春节后二十个交易日的胜率分别为百分之八十。
百分之七十和百分之八十平均涨幅分别达百分之七点一八、百分之八点六九和百分之九点一八。春季躁动背后有三大驱动因素。
一、国内既有十二月中央经济工作会议，又有三月将至的全国两会实质性政策改革利好海外，适逢年末重要节日，地缘政治关系相对缓和。
二一月底披露年报业绩预告，市场能够形成经济上行的预期，引发资金博弈。三、充裕的流动性，央行为应对节日期间的资金面需求与维稳。
会在公开市场进行较大力度的流动性投放。流动性是决定春季躁动节奏与表现的核心因素。第二，五，穷六绝，七翻身的说法最早来自香港股市。
和华尔街的著名古砚三令妹及五月清仓有着异曲同工之妙。股市在每逢五月的时候都会开始跌势，到了六月更会大跌，但到了七月。
股市会企稳反弹，五穷六绝七翻身的内在逻辑和业绩报告有关。五月、六月是业绩真空期期间，券商机构忙着调研。
调仓换股。因此通常在五月和六月，a 股市场一般表现相对较为弱势，同时六月份也是银行期中考核时点，流动性趋紧会导致股市进一步下跌。
等过了年中这个前景阶段后，七月份股市也会逐步回暖。第三，端午节在股市中就变成了跳水节，而且端午节的时间一般在五月底到六月中旬。
这个时间点和五穷六绝，七翻身刚好重合。统计显示，从二零零八年至今的十二年间，端午节前两天上涨概率只有百分之十六。
节后五天上涨概率百分之二十都不到。端午节魔咒背后的逻辑和资金的季节性波动有关，一般在六月下旬、月底、二季度末。
半年末，三者叠加，资金面趋紧，会给股市带来压力。第四，黑色周四效应法定砸盘日以近十年的上证指数为例，a 股黑色星期四并未凭空捏造。
周四跌幅无论均值中位数都呈现为负值。黑周四的原因可能是t 加一交易规则造成在t 加一规则下，短线投资者周末想钱消费。
必须周四卖出，次日周五提提取现金，这就导致市场的套现压力都集中在周四。第五红色，周一、红色周一和黑周四刚好相反。
二者的成因不同，黑色星期四是由制度造成，但红色星期一主要是从资金情绪上造成的。由于国内很多重大的宏观微观政策都在周末发布。
叠加外盘，欧美股市涨跌因素，资金出于避险考虑，都会卿仓过周末。正所谓手中无仓，心中不慌。等到周一开盘。
一切利好消息利空消息都会在早盘集中释放。如果消息偏暖，资金会主动补仓推升指数。如果消息偏空，经过周末时间的磨合。
也消化的差不多了。红周一现象在牛市中出现频率比较高，因为牛市中人们都害怕踏空，恨不得股市天天开门，再加上周末各种媒体机构。
朋友圈等营造的舆论氛围，很容导致周一开盘红第六月末季末效应，a 股月末效应是指每个月的月底几天都会下跌。
如果叠加季度末，比如六月份，不仅是二季度末，也是半年末，下跌概率会更大，主因还是流动性问题。目前针对银行主要有两大监管体系。
其中，对流动性影响最大的是流动性风险指标和m p a 的宏观审慎资本充足率。前者按月报送时点考核，后者按季报送。
时点考核，所以对流动性产生的影响主要集中在月末和季末。当然心理作用下的负反馈也会加强这种效应。不管是端午节。
还是月末寂寞。当这些魔咒在人的心里留下阴影之后，只要媒体一报道，流动性紧张，市场就会自发的抛售股票，加剧市场的波动。
这也表明，古诗不管怎么涨跌，最终还是人活动的结果。如果把人性研究透了，古诗也就不难了。
Stocks should also look at the calendar. Today, I will share with you the classic calendar effect in the stock market. The more famous calendar effects in a-shares include spring restlessness and February effect.
Gold, nine silver and ten red, Monday, black and Thursday, the investment strategy conference curse, the World Cup curse and so on. Behind the calendar effect is the concentrated response and reincarnation of economic activities and human psychological activities.
These unwritten proverbs or laws, although not necessarily 100% accurate, can be more or less corroborated in real stock market fluctuations. First, the spring restlessness is a special calendar effect.
Refers to the stock market generally has a higher probability of phased rises from January to March. Wanda statistics show that the spring disturbance can start as early as December.
After the Spring Festival, the rising market is expected to strengthen. In the past ten years, the Shanghai Composite Index, the Small and Medium-Sized Index and the ChiNext Index have won 80% of the 20 trading days after the Spring Festival.
The average increase of 70% and 80% was 7.18%, 8.69% and 9.18% respectively. There are three major drivers behind the spring turmoil.
1. In China, there is both the December Central Economic Work Conference and the substantive policy reforms of the National Two Sessions in March that are good for overseas. It coincides with an important holiday at the end of the year, and geopolitical relations are relatively relaxed.
The annual report performance forecast was released at the end of February, and the market can form expectations of economic growth, triggering a capital game. 3. Sufficient liquidity, the central bank responds to the capital demand during the holiday season and maintains stability.
Larger liquidity investments will be made in the open market. Liquidity is the core factor that determines the rhythm and performance of the spring restlessness. The second, five, poor, six, and seven stand-up talks originated from the Hong Kong stock market.
It is similar to the famous ancient inkstone three sisters on Wall Street and May Clearance. The stock market will start to fall every May, and it will fall sharply in June, but in July.
The stock market will stabilize and rebound, and the inherent logic of turning over the poor is related to the performance report. During the performance vacuum period in May and June, brokerage agencies are busy investigating.
Relocation and share swap. Therefore, usually in May and June, the a-share market generally performs relatively weakly. At the same time, June is also the time for bank mid-term assessments. Tight liquidity will cause the stock market to fall further.
After the outlook period in the middle of the year, the stock market will gradually pick up in July. Third, the Dragon Boat Festival has become a diving festival in the stock market, and the Dragon Boat Festival is generally from the end of May to mid-June.
This time point coincides with the five poor and six unique, seven turn over. Statistics show that in the twelve years from 2008 to the present, the probability of an increase in the two days before the Dragon Boat Festival is only 16%.
The probability of an increase in the five days after the holiday is less than 20%. The logic behind the Dragon Boat Festival mantra is related to the seasonal fluctuation of funds, generally in late June, the end of the month, and the end of the second quarter.
At the end of the half year, the three are superimposed and the capital is tight, which will put pressure on the stock market. Fourth, the black Thursday effect statutory hitting day. Taking the Shanghai Stock Exchange index in the past ten years as an example, the a-share Black Thursday was not fabricated out of thin air.
Regardless of the median of the mean value of the decline on Thursday, the value was negative. The reason for the black Thursday may be that the t plus one trading rule causes short-term investors to want to spend money on weekends under the t plus one rule.
You must sell on Thursday and withdraw cash on Friday the next day, which leads to the market's cashing pressure on Thursday. The fifth red, Monday, Red Monday and Black Thursday are just the opposite.
The causes of the two are different. Black Thursday is caused by the system, but Red Monday is mainly caused by financial sentiment. Because many major domestic macro and micro policies are released over the weekend.
Superimposed on the external market, the European and American stock markets are up and down factors, and funds will be held over the weekend due to risk aversion considerations. As the saying goes, there is no position in the hands, and I don't panic in my heart. Wait until the market opens on Monday.
All good news and bad news will be released in the morning. If the news is warmer, funds will take the initiative to cover up positions and push up the index. If the news is empty, after the weekend time run-in.
It's almost digested. The Red Monday phenomenon occurs more frequently in the bull market, because people in the bull market are afraid of running out of the sky and want the stock market to open every day, plus various media organizations on weekends.
The atmosphere of public opinion created by the circle of friends and others can easily lead to the end of the quarter effect at the end of the sixth month at the opening red on Monday. The month end effect of a-shares refers to the decline at the end of each month.
If the end of the quarter is superimposed, such as June, not only at the end of the second quarter but also at the end of the half year, the probability of a fall will be even greater. The main reason is liquidity issues. There are currently two major regulatory systems for banks.
Among them, the biggest impact on liquidity is the liquidity risk index and the macro-prudential capital adequacy ratio of m pa. The former is submitted for assessment on a monthly basis, and the latter is submitted on a quarterly basis.
Time assessment, so the impact on liquidity is mainly concentrated at the end of the month and the end of the quarter. Of course, the negative feedback under the psychological effect will also strengthen this effect. Whether it is the Dragon Boat Festival.
Still lonely at the end of the month. When these curses cast a shadow in people's hearts, as soon as the media reports that liquidity is tight, the market will spontaneously sell stocks and increase market volatility.
This also shows that no matter how the ancient poetry rises or falls, it is ultimately the result of human activities. If you thoroughly study human nature, ancient poetry will not be difficult.
金九银十红，周一黑周四招商策略会魔咒、世界杯魔咒等等。日历效应的背后，是经济活动和人类心理活动的集中反应和轮回。
这些不成文的谚语或规律，虽然不一定百分之一百准确，但在现实股市波动中都能或多或少得到佐证。第一，春季躁动是一种特殊的日历效应。
指的是股票市场一般在一月至三月会有较大概率的阶段性上涨行情。万德统计显示，春季躁动最早可于十二月开启。
春节之后，上涨行情有望加强。近十年来，上证综指、中小板指和创业板指在春节后二十个交易日的胜率分别为百分之八十。
百分之七十和百分之八十平均涨幅分别达百分之七点一八、百分之八点六九和百分之九点一八。春季躁动背后有三大驱动因素。
一、国内既有十二月中央经济工作会议，又有三月将至的全国两会实质性政策改革利好海外，适逢年末重要节日，地缘政治关系相对缓和。
二一月底披露年报业绩预告，市场能够形成经济上行的预期，引发资金博弈。三、充裕的流动性，央行为应对节日期间的资金面需求与维稳。
会在公开市场进行较大力度的流动性投放。流动性是决定春季躁动节奏与表现的核心因素。第二，五，穷六绝，七翻身的说法最早来自香港股市。
和华尔街的著名古砚三令妹及五月清仓有着异曲同工之妙。股市在每逢五月的时候都会开始跌势，到了六月更会大跌，但到了七月。
股市会企稳反弹，五穷六绝七翻身的内在逻辑和业绩报告有关。五月、六月是业绩真空期期间，券商机构忙着调研。
调仓换股。因此通常在五月和六月，a 股市场一般表现相对较为弱势，同时六月份也是银行期中考核时点，流动性趋紧会导致股市进一步下跌。
等过了年中这个前景阶段后，七月份股市也会逐步回暖。第三，端午节在股市中就变成了跳水节，而且端午节的时间一般在五月底到六月中旬。
这个时间点和五穷六绝，七翻身刚好重合。统计显示，从二零零八年至今的十二年间，端午节前两天上涨概率只有百分之十六。
节后五天上涨概率百分之二十都不到。端午节魔咒背后的逻辑和资金的季节性波动有关，一般在六月下旬、月底、二季度末。
半年末，三者叠加，资金面趋紧，会给股市带来压力。第四，黑色周四效应法定砸盘日以近十年的上证指数为例，a 股黑色星期四并未凭空捏造。
周四跌幅无论均值中位数都呈现为负值。黑周四的原因可能是t 加一交易规则造成在t 加一规则下，短线投资者周末想钱消费。
必须周四卖出，次日周五提提取现金，这就导致市场的套现压力都集中在周四。第五红色，周一、红色周一和黑周四刚好相反。
二者的成因不同，黑色星期四是由制度造成，但红色星期一主要是从资金情绪上造成的。由于国内很多重大的宏观微观政策都在周末发布。
叠加外盘，欧美股市涨跌因素，资金出于避险考虑，都会卿仓过周末。正所谓手中无仓，心中不慌。等到周一开盘。
一切利好消息利空消息都会在早盘集中释放。如果消息偏暖，资金会主动补仓推升指数。如果消息偏空，经过周末时间的磨合。
也消化的差不多了。红周一现象在牛市中出现频率比较高，因为牛市中人们都害怕踏空，恨不得股市天天开门，再加上周末各种媒体机构。
朋友圈等营造的舆论氛围，很容导致周一开盘红第六月末季末效应，a 股月末效应是指每个月的月底几天都会下跌。
如果叠加季度末，比如六月份，不仅是二季度末，也是半年末，下跌概率会更大，主因还是流动性问题。目前针对银行主要有两大监管体系。
其中，对流动性影响最大的是流动性风险指标和m p a 的宏观审慎资本充足率。前者按月报送时点考核，后者按季报送。
时点考核，所以对流动性产生的影响主要集中在月末和季末。当然心理作用下的负反馈也会加强这种效应。不管是端午节。
还是月末寂寞。当这些魔咒在人的心里留下阴影之后，只要媒体一报道，流动性紧张，市场就会自发的抛售股票，加剧市场的波动。
这也表明，古诗不管怎么涨跌，最终还是人活动的结果。如果把人性研究透了，古诗也就不难了。
Stocks should also look at the calendar. Today, I will share with you the classic calendar effect in the stock market. The more famous calendar effects in a-shares include spring restlessness and February effect.
Gold, nine silver and ten red, Monday, black and Thursday, the investment strategy conference curse, the World Cup curse and so on. Behind the calendar effect is the concentrated response and reincarnation of economic activities and human psychological activities.
These unwritten proverbs or laws, although not necessarily 100% accurate, can be more or less corroborated in real stock market fluctuations. First, the spring restlessness is a special calendar effect.
Refers to the stock market generally has a higher probability of phased rises from January to March. Wanda statistics show that the spring disturbance can start as early as December.
After the Spring Festival, the rising market is expected to strengthen. In the past ten years, the Shanghai Composite Index, the Small and Medium-Sized Index and the ChiNext Index have won 80% of the 20 trading days after the Spring Festival.
The average increase of 70% and 80% was 7.18%, 8.69% and 9.18% respectively. There are three major drivers behind the spring turmoil.
1. In China, there is both the December Central Economic Work Conference and the substantive policy reforms of the National Two Sessions in March that are good for overseas. It coincides with an important holiday at the end of the year, and geopolitical relations are relatively relaxed.
The annual report performance forecast was released at the end of February, and the market can form expectations of economic growth, triggering a capital game. 3. Sufficient liquidity, the central bank responds to the capital demand during the holiday season and maintains stability.
Larger liquidity investments will be made in the open market. Liquidity is the core factor that determines the rhythm and performance of the spring restlessness. The second, five, poor, six, and seven stand-up talks originated from the Hong Kong stock market.
It is similar to the famous ancient inkstone three sisters on Wall Street and May Clearance. The stock market will start to fall every May, and it will fall sharply in June, but in July.
The stock market will stabilize and rebound, and the inherent logic of turning over the poor is related to the performance report. During the performance vacuum period in May and June, brokerage agencies are busy investigating.
Relocation and share swap. Therefore, usually in May and June, the a-share market generally performs relatively weakly. At the same time, June is also the time for bank mid-term assessments. Tight liquidity will cause the stock market to fall further.
After the outlook period in the middle of the year, the stock market will gradually pick up in July. Third, the Dragon Boat Festival has become a diving festival in the stock market, and the Dragon Boat Festival is generally from the end of May to mid-June.
This time point coincides with the five poor and six unique, seven turn over. Statistics show that in the twelve years from 2008 to the present, the probability of an increase in the two days before the Dragon Boat Festival is only 16%.
The probability of an increase in the five days after the holiday is less than 20%. The logic behind the Dragon Boat Festival mantra is related to the seasonal fluctuation of funds, generally in late June, the end of the month, and the end of the second quarter.
At the end of the half year, the three are superimposed and the capital is tight, which will put pressure on the stock market. Fourth, the black Thursday effect statutory hitting day. Taking the Shanghai Stock Exchange index in the past ten years as an example, the a-share Black Thursday was not fabricated out of thin air.
Regardless of the median of the mean value of the decline on Thursday, the value was negative. The reason for the black Thursday may be that the t plus one trading rule causes short-term investors to want to spend money on weekends under the t plus one rule.
You must sell on Thursday and withdraw cash on Friday the next day, which leads to the market's cashing pressure on Thursday. The fifth red, Monday, Red Monday and Black Thursday are just the opposite.
The causes of the two are different. Black Thursday is caused by the system, but Red Monday is mainly caused by financial sentiment. Because many major domestic macro and micro policies are released over the weekend.
Superimposed on the external market, the European and American stock markets are up and down factors, and funds will be held over the weekend due to risk aversion considerations. As the saying goes, there is no position in the hands, and I don't panic in my heart. Wait until the market opens on Monday.
All good news and bad news will be released in the morning. If the news is warmer, funds will take the initiative to cover up positions and push up the index. If the news is empty, after the weekend time run-in.
It's almost digested. The Red Monday phenomenon occurs more frequently in the bull market, because people in the bull market are afraid of running out of the sky and want the stock market to open every day, plus various media organizations on weekends.
The atmosphere of public opinion created by the circle of friends and others can easily lead to the end of the quarter effect at the end of the sixth month at the opening red on Monday. The month end effect of a-shares refers to the decline at the end of each month.
If the end of the quarter is superimposed, such as June, not only at the end of the second quarter but also at the end of the half year, the probability of a fall will be even greater. The main reason is liquidity issues. There are currently two major regulatory systems for banks.
Among them, the biggest impact on liquidity is the liquidity risk index and the macro-prudential capital adequacy ratio of m pa. The former is submitted for assessment on a monthly basis, and the latter is submitted on a quarterly basis.
Time assessment, so the impact on liquidity is mainly concentrated at the end of the month and the end of the quarter. Of course, the negative feedback under the psychological effect will also strengthen this effect. Whether it is the Dragon Boat Festival.
Still lonely at the end of the month. When these curses cast a shadow in people's hearts, as soon as the media reports that liquidity is tight, the market will spontaneously sell stocks and increase market volatility.
This also shows that no matter how the ancient poetry rises or falls, it is ultimately the result of human activities. If you thoroughly study human nature, ancient poetry will not be difficult.
Time assessment, so the impact on liquidity is mainly concentrated at the end of the month and the end of the quarter. Of course, the negative feedback under the psychological effect will also strengthen this effect. Whether it is the Dragon Boat Festival.
Still lonely at the end of the month. When these curses cast a shadow in people's hearts, as soon as the media reports that liquidity is tight, the market will spontaneously sell stocks and increase market volatility.
This also shows that no matter how the ancient poetry rises or falls, it is ultimately the result of human activities. If you thoroughly study human nature, ancient poetry will not be difficult.
