你知道如何去精准判断a 股牛市的大顶吗？这个视频呢告诉你答案，而且全网独家。
你呀现在静下心来啊，花五分钟时间听完，那么下一次高高在山顶上站岗的人一定没有你。
赶紧收藏一下，说不定哪天这条视频呢就没了。大家都知道啊，二零零七年的牛市顶部是六幺二四点，而二零幺五年牛市的顶部呢是五幺七八点。
问题来了，按照常规的这个思维啊，因为社会经济在不断的发展和进步，按理说第二次牛市的顶部应该比第一次。
要高才对。那么老股民都知道啊，在二零一五年的年初牛市刚启动的时候啊，几乎所有的散户都认为啊这次股市的涨幅。
一定会超过零七年的六幺二四点都认为啊八千点一万点都不是梦啊啊，当时有一个人非常神奇，他早在。
二零幺四年的九月份，当时的股市还在两千二百点的时候，他就发表了一份报告。报告的核心内容啊有两点，第一。
股市要开启一轮大牛市。第二，本轮牛市的目标点位是五千点，它呀就是当时国泰君安的首席分析师。
任泽平，那么任泽平当时为什么能够准确的判断出来牛市能达到五千点，而不是要超过六千点呢？
他这个五千点是怎么计算出来的呢？是不是恰巧恰巧这个蒙对了啊，其实啊很简单，他把当时沪深两市的这个总市值。
除以当年的总的g d p 的一个占比，做了一个数据模型，它推算出来的。咱们呢先看零五到零七年。
牛市的这个数据啊，二零零五年的a 股点位是一千点，当时啊沪深两市总市值占比g d p 的这个比例是百分之二十。
而到了零七年的十月份，这个a 股啊疯涨到了六千点的时候，占比高达百分之一百三十二。那后面的故事啊大家都知道惨烈的熊市啊，一直把股市干。
到了幺六六四点，当时啊发生了无数个这个人间悲剧啊。而在一五年牛市的初期啊，也就是二零一四年的上半年。
当时的这个a 股啊在两千点，当时啊两市的总市值占比g d p 约为百分之四十左右。但是到了二零一五年的这个六月份。
a 股是这个涨到了五千点，占比啊高达百分之一百一十一。随后呢股灾就发生了，咱们总结一下啊。
当总市值占比一旦超过g d p 的百分之一百，就等于流通市场上所有的资金呢几乎全部都被吸入到了股市。
那么流动性啊就被股市彻底的吸干了，也就是说再也没有后续的增量资金去继续拉升股市了。
因为价格上涨的这个本质就是资金去推动的。当时的这个任泽平就是通过这个简单的方法去判断出来了五千点这个牛市的目标怎么样。
够简单吧。
Do you know how to accurately judge the big top of the a-share bull market? This video tells you the answer, and it is exclusive to the whole network.
Now, calm down, take five minutes to finish listening, then the next time you will stand guard on the top of the mountain, you will definitely not be there.
Hurry up and save it, maybe this video will be gone someday. Everyone knows that the top of the bull market in 2007 was 6 units and 24 points, and the top of the bull market in 20 units and 5 years was 5 units and 8 points.
Here comes the problem. According to the conventional thinking, because the social economy is constantly developing and progressing, it stands to reason that the top of the second bull market should be higher than the first.
It must be high. Well old stock investors all know that when the bull market just started in early 2015, almost all retail investors thought that the stock market rose this time.
It must be more than seven years old at six and two or four o'clock. They thought that eight thousand and ten thousand points were not a dream. At that time, there was a man who was very amazing. He was already there.
In September of 2004, when the stock market was still at 2200, he published a report. The core content of the report has two points, first.
The stock market is about to start a big bull market. Second, the target point of this round of bull market is 5,000 points, which is the chief analyst of Guotai Junan at that time.
Ren Zeping, then why was Ren Zeping able to accurately judge that the bull market could reach 5,000 points, instead of exceeding 6,000 points?
How did he calculate the five thousand points? Did it happen to be right? In fact, it was very simple. He took the total market value of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges at that time.
Divide it by a proportion of the total g d p of the year and make a data model, which is calculated. Let's look at the years from 2005 to 2007 first.
According to the bull market data, the A-share point in 2005 was 1,000 points. At that time, the total market value of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets accounted for 20% of gdp.
In October 2007, when this A-share skyrocketed to 6,000, the share was as high as 132%. The story behind that, everyone knows the tragic bear market, has been doing the stock market.
When it was 6 or 4 o'clock, there were countless tragedies in this world. At the beginning of the bull market in one-five years, that is, the first half of 2014.
At that time, the A-share market was at two thousand points. At that time, the total market value of the two cities accounted for about 40% of gdp. But in this June of 2015.
A-shares have risen to 5,000 points, accounting for up to 111%. Then the stock market crash happened, let's summarize it.
When the total market value exceeds 100% of g d p, it means that almost all of the funds in the circulating market have been sucked into the stock market.
Then the liquidity is completely absorbed by the stock market, which means that there will be no follow-up incremental funds to continue to lift the stock market.
Because the nature of price increases is driven by funds. At that time, Ren Zeping used this simple method to judge the goal of the five thousand-point bull market.
Simple enough.