周期还有机会吗？去年周期涨了一波，但是很明显不尽兴。最近很多人在问周期还有没有机会，今天告诉你。
周期主要看宏观经济，目前国内的宏观经济持续向好，工业生产全面回暖，预计二零二零年四季度g d p 同比增长百分之五点五。
是全球唯一保持正增长的大国。今年一季度因为基数低，所以增速会更快。g d p 同比增长超过百分之十，问题不大。
更有机构预测，同比增长百分之二十，经济快速增长将驱动周期品涨价。这在去年的煤炭、铝等周期品上已经有过表现。
加上疫苗投入市场，疫情得到控制后，国外经济也会复苏，这也会助推周期的行情。那么周期的机会要怎么把握？提到周期大家都会想到煤炭。
郑州煤电两个月涨了四倍，让人印象深刻。煤炭虽然需求很好，但是去年电煤价格已经被限制在了六百四十元每吨。
限价的问题会影响市场对煤炭板块的估值，所以很难再有大机会再说钢铁，这也是典型的周期行业。但是作为国际大宗商品的铁矿石。
涨价的趋势很难逆转，这就给钢铁行业带来了很大的成本压力，因此也难有行情。目前看比较有希望的就是有色。
国际铜价和铝价持续走强，铝价创出近两年的新高，而同价更是创出了二零一三年以来的新高。接下来全球经济金融复苏期以后。
铜铝价格可能再次走强，去年有色板块走出了华丰铝业，半个月接近翻倍。接下来这样的机会还会再次出现。其中一家公司是国内铝材的龙头。
凭借成本和技术优势持续获得超额利润，并且公司已经实现由传统加工向高端制造的升级。随着经济持续复苏。
公司成长空间有望进一步打开。
Is there still a chance for the cycle? Last year, the cycle rose by a wave, but it was obviously not full of happiness. Recently, many people are asking if there is any chance in the cycle, and I will tell you today.
The cycle mainly depends on the macro economy. At present, the domestic macro economy continues to improve, and industrial production is picking up in an all-round way. It is expected that g d p in the fourth quarter of 2020 will increase by 5.5% year-on-year.
It is the only major country in the world that maintains positive growth. Because of the low base in the first quarter of this year, the growth rate will be faster. g d p increased by more than 10% year-on-year, which is not a big problem.
More institutions predict that with a year-on-year growth of 20%, rapid economic growth will drive the price of cyclical products. This has already been demonstrated in cyclical products such as coal and aluminum last year.
Coupled with the introduction of vaccines on the market, after the epidemic is brought under control, foreign economies will also recover, which will also boost the cyclical market. So how to grasp the opportunity of the cycle? When it comes to cycles, everyone thinks of coal.
Zhengzhou Coal and Electricity has quadrupled in two months, which is impressive. Although the demand for coal is very good, the price of thermal coal has been limited to 640 yuan per ton last year.
The issue of price limit will affect the market's valuation of the coal sector, so it is difficult to have a big opportunity to talk about steel, which is also a typical cyclical industry. But iron ore is an international commodity.
The trend of price increases is difficult to reverse, which has brought a lot of cost pressure to the steel industry, so it is difficult to have a market. The one that looks promising at the moment is colored.
International copper and aluminum prices continued to strengthen, aluminum prices hit a new high in the past two years, and the same price hit a new high since 2013. After the period of global economic and financial recovery.
Copper and aluminum prices may strengthen again. Last year, the non-ferrous sector moved out of Huafeng Aluminum and nearly doubled in half a month. This opportunity will reappear in the future. One of the companies is the leading domestic aluminum company.
Relying on cost and technical advantages, it continues to obtain excess profits, and the company has realized the upgrade from traditional processing to high-end manufacturing. As the economy continues to recover.
The company's growth space is expected to be further opened up.